Determinants of Youth Protest Potential in Kazakhstan, 2021-2025: Evidence from Survey Data

Abstract

This study investigates youth protest potential in Kazakhstan between 2021 and 2025, situating national trends within the broader global context of youth-led socio-political engagement. The analysis is based on a longitudinal survey of over 10,000 respondents, with the 2021-2022 wave covering individuals aged 14-28 and the 2023-2025 wave extending the upper age limit to 34. Demographic analysis indicates a cohort-specific expansion of the youngest youth segment (14-18 years), suggesting potential medium-term socio-economic pressures on education, employment, and social integration. Survey findings reveal that economic grievances remain the primary driver of youth protest readiness, with willingness to participate in protests due to rising prices for essential goods increasing from 20.7% in 2021 to 28.2% in 2025. In parallel, political sensitivity intensified, as corruption and perceived government inaction were increasingly perceived as threats to social equality, reflecting a shift from material concerns toward politically articulated motivations. These results indicate that youth political mobilization in Kazakhstan constitutes a structured and socially embedded form of protest participation, shaped by demographic shifts, economic pressures, institutional distrust, and evolving political awareness with younger cohorts.